Gold Outlook for Week Commencing 31st March 2014

Hey all,

Apologies for not updating my blog for over a week, I have had a lot going on and haven't had much time to spend in front of my screens apart from checking in on my trades and updating them.

Last week we saw another sharp decline - could we have possibly formed a bottom now? Personally, I think there is more downside left in this move.

You can see from my chart below where I see key support and resistance levels on Gold. At the close of yesterdays market, the price is sitting between Support Level 1 and Resistance Level 1 (under the 1300 psychological level). Gold tried to rally up on Friday to get near to 1300 again however it did not have enough power to touch of go through this psychological level and was pushed back down closing the day/week at $1293.

Ideally, I would like to see 1300-1309 re-tested before adding any shorts to my portfolio again, and I would look to see this at the beginning of next week. Monday is the last trading day of the month and next week there is also some high impact news on the way which will bring more intraday volatility to the precious metal.

The way PA has been playing out has been showing extreme weakness in the bulls. In the last 10 trading day, there have been 3 out of 7 daily bulls candle closes - of which have been pushed down from their highest prices of the day. The daily bear candles have been closing much more firmly showing the strength lays with the bears still. Although this may just be a strong correction of the recent upmove, unless we form some sort of base or daily supportive candle with a continuation, I cannot see the bulls taking this much further at the present moment in time.

The keys levels on the downtrend I am now looking at are 1282 & 1262. I see buyers waiting here to take the price back up but how far up only PA can really tell this.

Depending on candle formation on the 4HR & 1HR charts at 1300-1310, I will be assessing my shorts and adding to them looking at SL1 and SL2 to take profits. If RL1 is taken out firmly then there could be potential for the bulls to have regained control.

Next week will show quite a bit of movement but at the current levels I am just going to be a spectator and not get involved in trading this metal until I see the price come to me at either the next support or resistance level.

Blog Update

Hey all,

Just want to apologize for not keeping my "new" blog updated this week - I have had a lot going on, I hope you are all making pips and cash in the bank it has been a great week shorting Gold especially.

I will start updating my blog again from next week properly however just dropping a line to say that PA is downwards and I am currently shorting Gold quite heavily with TPs within the 1270-1287 range and will keep adjusting these as PA moves and either I start to see supportive candles or further break through supports.

Have a great weekend all!

Gold Wednesday 19th March 2014

Firstly, sorry for the late post today, I have been actively trading throughout the day and watching the charts like a hawk as I was trading quite heavy lots for today. Happy to say all my trades have hit TP today.

We have reached the bottom support of Support Zone 1 (see daily chart below) where I took off all my short trades.

The FOMC is later on today 19:00 GMT+1 and I took off my shorts due to this. We could quite easily hit the 132x levels today however I would prefer to stay out of trading for the rest of the day until things clear up overnight and start fresh again from tomorrow.

3 days in a row now we have had bearish candles on the daily TF. A lot of short term support also taken out.

I am going to see how PA reacts to the FOMC and then see how the charts are looking tomorrow before deciding whether to long or short Gold now.

The correction so far has been nice however I still see room for it to go lower before find extreme support for the path back into the 142x levels.

Today's high has been 1359.55 and currently  there has been a low of 1337.684.

Silver Tuesday 18th March 2014

Silver looks like it is aiming for its first major support level at 20.5 - 20.6. Yesterday was a bearish day and I can now see some sort of correction back to these levels before a possibility of a further push up to take out the most recent high of 22.16.

I am not trading Silver at the moment as the picture is not clear enough for me and the RR would not be within my rules of trading.

However if I were trading a demo I would be short right now to 20.5.

Gold Tuesday 18th March 2014

So gold had quite a day yesterday. I was short in the 1390 level and took out for profit yesterday evening when PA bounced of a previous resistance level from the daily chart at at 1361 which was now used as support.

Today it has already passed through the support level at 1361 and I anticipate it to get into the next support zone between 1339-1350 at some point before Thursday as long as 1386 is intact.

On the smaller TF (15M) we have been making lower highs and lower lows since yesterday which is still also intact. The previous higher low was taken out yesterday from the breakout north (see 15M chart below). On the short term I am looking for 1367 to hold as immediate resistance for continuation south.

Overall I am still with a bullish bias so techincally I am shorting Gold until I see solid support to order to place my buy order which will take me to the 142x levels in the long run.

Today is shorting day for me, I am not looking to place any buy orders just yet as I see further movement south still.

Silver Outlook for Week Commencing 17th March 2014

Silver made a new daily & weekly high on Friday. Almost touching the downward TL from where it pulled back from. I closed out all my longs on Silver on Friday however I am still 100% bullish on Silver in the long term.

Silver may return to 20.5 in the near future where there will be plenty of buyers waiting to get in. I am not going to trade Silver at the moment because I just do not see a good entry price at the moment. However I have set buy orders at the 20.5 price if it were to return there next week however ideally I am looking for 22 to be cleared and then will manually enter long at those levels if it clears, holds and uses 22 as a new support from which I will have my main TP at 23 and my final TP at 24.5.

Gold Outlook for Week Commencing 17th March 2014

So Gold had a bit of a up and down day on Friday however closed positively from the days open just under the 1383 price.

During the day it reached 1387.88 with a low of 1367.80.

As mentioned in a previous post, the markets could potentially open next week with a gap due to the news. I don't personally believe in gap trading as price moves even when the brokers are closed therefore the so called "gaps" are just an indication of price movement when the brokers have not been open. On Friday, my longs were all closed at TP levels and I reopened shorts in the 138x levels targeting 1374 - 1364 for the day. Most of my shorts which I opened closed at 1374 and I manually closed the remaining open ones around 1380 as I did not want to leave anything on the table over this weekend.

Most likely, I will watch PA over the Asian session (where I see quite a bit of movement taking place) however will probably trade big but tight during the Asian sessions and stay out from the start of the London and throughout the NY sessions as I think it can start to get a bit messy. From Tuesday, depending again on news from the East, I will re-asses PA and then take my trades based on that.

Because of where price closed on Friday, without a doubt we are still strongly bullish. On Friday's peak, we touched and entered Resistance Zone 1 (see daily chart below) where it pulled back from during NY session.

I see first support holding at 1361, however, during the pullback from the high, it returned to 1374 before heading back up again. Looking at the lower TF charts (15M), the pullback was strong and the support held at 1374 regaining almost 85% of the pullback before market close. On the short term level, 1376-1373 is my first support zone on the lower TFs.

Ultimately, I see 1400 being taken with 1414 being the first real major resistance level on the upside. I do feel we will get there with the backing of the news however with the FOMC also this week, again this could be sent onto a short-lived whirlwind.

I have attached two charts to this post, a Daily and a 15M chart. Personally I will be working off the 15M chart more these next few weeks rather than the longer term time frames as I usually do. I find now there will be more opportunity to trade both ways (however I am looking to just buy on pullbacks) especially until we don't cross over $1400 ($18 from CMP).

I am favoring the upside unless we break and clear 1361, 1350 and 1339 from where I would then see 1309 a potential target and maybe even 1300 and below. However I won't go into detail on the lower targets as right now I am just concentrating on the higher targets as this is where I see Gold going in the short term future at least.

Gold Friday 14th March 2014 UPDATE**

Gold has reached my targets for the day hitting my TPs.

I am not shorting gold quite heavily back to the 1374 - 1364 region.

Silver Friday 14th March 2014

Silver made a high of 21.44 yesterday and a low of 21.08 closing at 21.16.

There was not much movement on Silver yesterday compared to Gold which is a bit of concern as Gold is being bought as "safe haven" whereas Silver is not. As the price is not moving on Silver as much as it is in Gold, there is concern for me that one of the "main" reasons Gold keeps making higher highs recently is due to news more than any other factors.

Silver did make a new high yesterday from Wednesday however not much else has changed.

20.5 still strong support with 22.16 still as my first target.

I am still long in Silver and holding my trades.

Gold Friday 14th March 2014

Gold made a high of 1374 yesterday and closed the day off at 1370. It was quite a mixed day with the positive news coming out of the US pushing the price down slightly however it didn't last long before the price returned back into the 1368 region again. At the time of writing this, price is currently standing at 1369.8. I closed out my longs yesterday in the 1375 region and have reloaded longs this morning at the 1368 region targeting the 1377-1380 region for today.

I do hopefully intend to close all my open trades in Gold by the end of the day today due to possible critical news over the weekend which could open the markets on Sunday night with a large gap (possibly) and I do not want to risk this happening.

Upon Asia sessions earlier today, a new high was made at 1376.36 and we have traded at a low of 1367.8 so far today. I am looking for 1365 to maintain as support for today and 1375 is key resistance level which needs to be broken in order for further upside movement. 1377 is a major resistance on my charts and then of course the big 1380.

The way the market has driven through large resistant levels in the past few weeks is another indication that these important levels may not be respected on the upside.

On the downside, if 1365 is taken, next support level I see is 1362 and then back down to 1352. A close below 1352 will indicate further downside movement in the near future.

Next week will be an interesting week. A decent retracement is still awaiting for Gold when it finds a top strong enough to be held.

Current PA is bullish and without some form of strong resistance at the key levels, 1400 could easily be on the books in the coming weeks especially with the current headlines in the news.

Silver Wednesday 13th March 2014

Silver is still trading within the downward triangle. However 20.50 has been showing solid support as well as previous solid resistance. Yesterday there was a strong bullish daily candle close and now over the next few days, I am looking for a break of this triangle to the upside aiming for the 22.16 levels. From there I would be looking to target the 23.00 level (being choppy along the way nonetheless moving to the upside).

Ultimately, looking to reach the 25.00 level however I do see a large retracement before reaching those prices.

I am currently long from yesterdays close.

Gold Wednesday 13th March 2014

Well gold broke through the 1361 resistance level yesterday and finished the day closing at 1366. Yesterday a high of 1370.75 was reached. PA is showing that the market has clearly not finished this bull run by far. Yesterday I was watching 1354 closely as a level to be held and closed above to continue a bull run. It closed $12 above this price therefore in my opinion bulls still have the market very clearly.

Today I have opened up a couple of longs, the 76.4 fib level has also been breached a little ago however looking to blow through this at some point today. Today is the first day of the week where there is some high impact news coming out of the US that can spike the market depending on the outcome.

Any form of down move from here is just an indication for me to buy. Until PA looks exhausted and future key levels are met, 1380, 1400, 1440, I will consider shorting the market. My bias had changed last week to the downside as I believed a top had been formed, however that has been completely blown away this week with the PA.

My next level of taking profit is 1384 where I see some short term resistance on the long move.