Gold Outlook for Week Commencing 17th March 2014

So Gold had a bit of a up and down day on Friday however closed positively from the days open just under the 1383 price.

During the day it reached 1387.88 with a low of 1367.80.

As mentioned in a previous post, the markets could potentially open next week with a gap due to the news. I don't personally believe in gap trading as price moves even when the brokers are closed therefore the so called "gaps" are just an indication of price movement when the brokers have not been open. On Friday, my longs were all closed at TP levels and I reopened shorts in the 138x levels targeting 1374 - 1364 for the day. Most of my shorts which I opened closed at 1374 and I manually closed the remaining open ones around 1380 as I did not want to leave anything on the table over this weekend.

Most likely, I will watch PA over the Asian session (where I see quite a bit of movement taking place) however will probably trade big but tight during the Asian sessions and stay out from the start of the London and throughout the NY sessions as I think it can start to get a bit messy. From Tuesday, depending again on news from the East, I will re-asses PA and then take my trades based on that.

Because of where price closed on Friday, without a doubt we are still strongly bullish. On Friday's peak, we touched and entered Resistance Zone 1 (see daily chart below) where it pulled back from during NY session.

I see first support holding at 1361, however, during the pullback from the high, it returned to 1374 before heading back up again. Looking at the lower TF charts (15M), the pullback was strong and the support held at 1374 regaining almost 85% of the pullback before market close. On the short term level, 1376-1373 is my first support zone on the lower TFs.

Ultimately, I see 1400 being taken with 1414 being the first real major resistance level on the upside. I do feel we will get there with the backing of the news however with the FOMC also this week, again this could be sent onto a short-lived whirlwind.

I have attached two charts to this post, a Daily and a 15M chart. Personally I will be working off the 15M chart more these next few weeks rather than the longer term time frames as I usually do. I find now there will be more opportunity to trade both ways (however I am looking to just buy on pullbacks) especially until we don't cross over $1400 ($18 from CMP).

I am favoring the upside unless we break and clear 1361, 1350 and 1339 from where I would then see 1309 a potential target and maybe even 1300 and below. However I won't go into detail on the lower targets as right now I am just concentrating on the higher targets as this is where I see Gold going in the short term future at least.